Their bowling attacks are similarly matched but the difference could come in the spin department, where New Zealand look stronger
Firdose Moonda04-Mar-20251:39
Do South Africa have the best attack in the tournament?
Big picture: Run fest awaits SA, NZHere we are again. South Africa and New Zealand, the two best sides to have never won a World Cup, meet in a knockout match. Both have had their hands on trophy all the way back when it was called the ICC Knockout and possibly meant something else in terms of its significance in the global game. So make no mistake: winning this will not take away the desire for the big one but it will help to tide things over until 2027, when South Africa co-host the event with neighbours Zimbabwe and Namibia.Quietly, South Africa know they are actually building for that but the pressure to return home with something other than disappointment is ever-present. This is another chance to change that. New Zealand, after coming so close to the trophy at the 2019 World Cup, also carry scars but somehow seem less burdened by them. Perhaps a smaller population, with fewer socio-economic fractures that can be plastered over with sporting success helps them; maybe they’re just good at stoicism. Those are things to ponder later in the week when one of these two teams will play a final against a yet-to-be-decided opposition at a yet-to-be-decided venue. For now, they’ve both probably got the knockout they wanted.Facing each other, rather than India or Australia, appears to give them both a better chance of progressing to the final. And doing it in Pakistan, though both teams travelled from Dubai at different times on Monday, likely suits them more. Conditions are good for run-scoring and both have line-ups capable of posting big scores which suggests fans will be in for a run-fest. Their attacks are similarly matched to the point where both were hit by injury-enforced absences amongst the quicks. Some of the more interesting narratives could be around which of the tall men – Marco Jansen and Kyle Jamieson – can extract the most with their height or which of the attacking bowlers, Kagiso Rabada or Matt Henry, has the most success.Related
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A difference could come in the spin resources, where South Africa have chosen to operate with only one specialist in Keshav Maharaj but New Zealand have both captain Mitchell Santner and offspinner Michael Bracewell in their best XI. Maharaj had previously indicated he sees a spinners role as a more defensive one at this event so their economy rates are the numbers to watch here.Overall, this match promises an even contest without the hype that comes with playing a big three nation even though there is plenty of history. New Zealand dumped South Africa out of both the 2011 and 2015 World Cups and though the likes of us will talk about it, it’s worth remembering that the last of those was ten years ago and much cricket has been played since.Then, particularly for South Africa, the results seemed seismic. Now, ICC events happen annually and teams are dusting themselves off and starting again with much greater frequency. Does that mean it matters less if you lose at a crucial stage or even if you win? Ask one of these two, who have both spent the best part of the last three decades trying to win a major trophy and they’re likely to say no. Only one of them will have the chance to do it this time.Form guide South Africa: WWLLL (last five completed matches, most recent first)New Zealand: LWWWWIn the spotlight: David Miller and Kane WilliamsonNo one has quite said it yet but could this be the last time 35-year-old David Miller plays in an ODI tournament for South Africa? And if so, what kind of say will he have on it? He has limited opportunity in the tournament so far. He came to bat in the 43rd over against Afghanistan only to smash the winning runs against England, but has had almost-decisive knocks in both South Africa’s previous white-ball knockout games. At the 2023 ODI World Cup, Miller’s century gave South Africa something to defend in the semi-final after they were reduced to 24 for 4; at the 2024 T20 World Cup, he was looking good on 21 off 17 balls before being spectacularly caught on the boundary which could have taken South Africa within touching distance of the trophy. Miller has shown he enjoys the big occasion and has also indicated he is taking things year by year, so chances to play in knockouts are likely becoming fewer. After all his efforts, he will want to play a role in South Africa winning one.2:46
Latham: Scheduling is out of our control
Kane Williamson has back-to-back ODI centuries against South Africa, albeit they were scored six years apart. He made 106* against them in Birmingham in June 2019 and 133* against them at this venue in the tri-series that preceded this tournament, though that was not against a full-strength South African side. Overall, Williamson averages 57.35 against South Africa, his best against any opposition other than Zimbabwe. Though New Zealand have a line-up of creative and crafty hitters, Williamson’s role in New Zealand’s side continues to be of utmost importance as evidenced by his 81 against India in Dubai, where he kept New Zealand in the fight in what was ultimately a losing cause.Like many of the more experienced players at this event, at 34, Williamson may not get another opportunity to win an ODI trophy and will want to make the most of this one.Team newsOpeners Temba Bavuma and Tony de Zorzi have both recovered from the illness that kept them out of the England game and are expected to be available for selection, but de Zorzi is expected to make way for Aiden Markram, who passed his fitness test on Tuesday. George Linde has been called up as a travelling reserve. The bowling make-up – two allrounders, one specialist spinner and two quicks – is expected to be unchanged.South Africa (possible): 1 Temba Bavuma (capt), 2 Ryan Rickelton, 3 Rassie van der Dussen, 4 Aiden Markram, 5 Heinrich Klaasen (wk), 6 David Miller, 7 Wiaan Mulder, 8 Marco Jansen, 9 Keshav Maharaj, 10 Kagiso Rabada, 11 Lungi NgidiMitchell Santner and Temba Bavuma shake hands•AFP/Getty Images
New Zealand’s only question will be which one of Will Young, Rachin Ravindra, Devon Conway or Daryl Mitchell they will leave out. Conway sat out the India match for Mitchell, who played against Pakistan but not Bangladesh. Young and Ravindra both have centuries to their names at this competition which suggests the decision is between Mitchell and Conway, who has scores of 30 and 10 from his outings in the tournament.New Zealand: 1 Will Young, 2 Rachin Ravindra/Devon Conway, 3 Kane Williamson, 4 Daryl Mitchell, 5 Tom Latham (wk), 6 Glenn Phillips, 7 Michael Bracewell, 8 Mitchell Santner (capt), 9 Matt Henry, 10 Kyle Jamieson, 11 Will O’RourkePitch and conditionsIn five ODIs this year, the average first innings score is 316.5 and results have been shared between the team batting first and the chasing team. It’s expected to be another belter for the batters and tough outing for bowlers. While Heinrich Klaasen mentioned some drizzle on South Africa’s arrival in the city on Monday, the forecast is mild and clear for the semi-final.Stats and trivia South Africa and New Zealand have played no bilateral white-ball cricket against each other since 2017 but played each other at the 2019 and 2023 World Cups and won a game a piece and the Pakistan tri-nation series, in a match which New Zealand won. In ICC tournaments, they have met 11 times, and New Zealand have won seven of those games. South Africa are the only country to have qualified for the knockouts of all of the last seven ICC events – across men’s, women’s and Under-19 tournaments. That includes the 2023 men’s ODI World Cup semi-final, the 2024 men’s T20 World Cup final, the 2025 World Test Championship final, the 2024 men’s Under-19 World Cup semi-final, the 2024 women’s T20 World Cup final and the 2025 women’s Under-19 final.Quotes”Scheduling is an issue all around but when you do have time to rest and recover, you should. One day cricket can be quite exhausting on the body, and for us, it might be about making sure bowlers are ready for tomorrow. I don’t think they’re going to be doing much today in training.”New Zealand travelled back to Pakistan from Dubai early on Monday morning and will use Tuesday to recuperate rather than train heavily according to captain Mitchell Santner. “We’ll approach it as we normally would. We obviously want to play our best cricket. We understand New Zealand will obviously come with a certain challenge and we’ll have to prepare accordingly but I think Marco [Jansen] said it, it’s just another game for us. Yes, it’s important but we definitely won’t be blowing it out of proportion. It’s the semi-final, we want to play our best cricket.”
