The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills renew what is fast becoming the best rivalry in the NFL Playoffs when they square off in the AFC Championship this Sunday at 6:30 A.M.
Though it’s been a one-sided affair to this point, with the Chiefs winning the previous three playoff matchups, the odds at FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook suggest this will be a tight battle.
Bills vs Chiefs Odds for AFC Championship
Spread
Chiefs -1.5 (-110)Bills +1.5 (-110)
Moneyline
Chiefs -122Bills +104
OVER/UNDER
OVER: 47.5 (-115)UNDER: 47.5 (-105)
Spread
Chiefs -1.5 (-112)Bills +1.5 (-108)
Moneyline
Chiefs -120Bills +110
OVER/UNDER
OVER: 48.5 (-105)UNDER: 48.5 (-115)
The Chiefs opened as -1.5-point favorites on both sportsbooks above, with the only discrepancy being the odds for the Chiefs covering at DraftKings are slightly stronger than those at FanDuel. That’s also reflected in the moneyline odds, with DraftKings offering better odds than FanDuel whether you’re betting on the Chiefs or Bills to win straight up.
The odds haven’t moved since the lines opened on Sunday night.
The OVER/UNDER is where we see a slight variation. DraftKings set the total at 48.5 points and FanDuel put it at 47.5. If you’re betting the total, you’d probably side with FanDuel if you think the two teams will combine for more than 48 points and go with DraftKings if you think they’ll score less than 48 points.
Playoff history featuring Bills QB Josh Allen and Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes would suggest the OVER is the play as well as the Chiefs covering.
The Chiefs and Bills have played three times in the playoffs with these two under center for their respective teams and the Chiefs are 3-0 in those games. The Chiefs won the 2021 AFC Championship 38-24, the 2022 AFC divisional round, 42-36, and the 2024 AFC divisional round 27-24.
All of those games would hit the OVER in this matchup and the Chiefs would cover a 1.5-point line as well.
Of course, this is a different season and different teams. Allen put together an MVP-worthy season, throwing for 3,731 yards with 28 TDs and 6 INTs while also rushing for 531 yards and 12 TDs. In the playoffs, he has 4 TDs (two passing and two rushing) and no turnovers.
Mahomes threw for 3,928 yards with 26 TDs and 11 INTs and rushed for 307 yards and 2 TDs in the regular season. He threw for 177 yards and 1 TD vs the Texans in the Chiefs' 23-14 division round win.
The biggest difference is the Chiefs defense. They gave up 18.9 points per game in the regular season (third in the NFL) and are one of the best red zone scoring defenses in the NFL, giving up a TD on 50.9% of opponents trips to the red zone, seventh-best in the NFL. No team has scored more than 19 points against them since November.
The Bills and Chiefs squared off in Week 11 and the Bills won, 30-21, in a game where the Bills scored two TDs in the fourth quarter to pull away. That game was also in Buffalo, however. This is in Kansas City.
The Chiefs and Bills produced one of the greatest playoff games in NFL history in 2022 with the two teams exchanging four TDs in the final quarter and the Chiefs tying the game on a last-second field goal after getting the ball back with only 13 seconds remaining in the game. They won it in overtime on a Travis Kecle TD catch.
The Bills have the second-highest scoring offense in the NFL this season, averaging 30.7 points per game in the regular season and 5.9 yards per play, sixth-best. Their defense, however, gave up 5.6 yards per play, 25th in the NFL. For the Bills to hang around in this game, they’ll need to get past the Chiefs' stingy defense.
Vegas believes this will be a close game to start. The odds could shift based on bets coming in and any surprise injuries that could come into play. We’ll keep you posted on all of that as the world watches these two teams renew a budding rivalry that should produce another classic.
