The summer is here, meaning we’re getting closer to the start of fantasy football drafts. Success in those drafts will come from landing terrific bargains in the middle to late rounds while avoiding players who could see their numbers decline compared to 2021. That latter exercise isn’t easy, however, especially in the case of players who are among the elite at their position or are coming off breakout seasons in the stat sheets.
Case in point. In 2020, Allen Robinson recorded 102 catches on 151 targets for 1,250 yards and six touchdowns. That was all good enough for him to finish ninth in fantasy points among wide receivers, and it was his second straight year in the top 10. As a result, fantasy managers felt good about drafting Robinson as a low-end No. 1 wideout in 2021 drafts. In fact, he had an ADP of 32.7, according to Fantasy Football Calculator.
Unfortunately, the veteran wideout experienced a massive decline in his fantasy totals across the board. In fact, his catches, yardage and touchdown numbers were his worst since his rookie season. Who knew he would miss Mitchell Trubisky so much or that the selection of rookie Justin Fields would actually be for Robinson’s stock?
The point here is that few folks saw this coming because Robinson was so good in the two previous seasons. The proof, of course, is in his high-end ADP number. That leads me to this series, aptly named “The Fantasy Case Against…” where I’ll do my due diligence in looking at players who everyone in fantasy land seems to think is a sure bet to remain uber-productive after finding a high level of success in past seasons.
The series highlights big-name players or those coming off enormous statistical years who could see a surprising decline in fantasy success. Like I always say, the only thing that’s predictable about the NFL is that it’s oftentimes unpredictable. And as much as we love our fantasy heroes out on the gridiron, no one is ever guaranteed to succeed.
Next up, I’ll take a look at Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf.
Fantasy Case Against: Cooper Kupp | Davante Adams | Deebo Samuel | Amon-Ra St. Brown | Diontae Johnson | Cordarrelle Patterson | Michael Thomas | James Conner | Javonte Williams
2021 Season
Metcalf experienced statistical declines almost across the board compared to his 2020 totals. He saw the same number of targets (129) but played in one more game, and his reception (-8) and yardage (-336) totals were both down. However, Metcalf did post a career-high 12 touchdowns, and he finished 14th in fantasy points among wideouts.
Did You Know?
Metcalf averaged 14.4 fantasy points per game last season, down from the 17 points he averaged in 2020. He was highly inconsistent, though, as he scored fewer than 12.1 fantasy points 10 times in 17 games. That’s nearly 60% of the time. He also scored seven of his 12 touchdowns in just three games (58%), and he was held without a single score nine times. Metcalf also had just one game with 100-plus receiving yards.
Historical Trends
Metcalf will be entering his first NFL season without Russell Wilson under center. In his three pro years (46 games) with Wilson at the helm, Metcalf recorded an average of 14.6 fantasy points and scored 26 touchdowns. That average jumps to 15.6 points per game if we narrow it down to just the last two seasons and exclude his rookie numbers.
Now, let’s take a look at the numbers wide receivers have produced historically with either Geno Smith or Drew Lock under center. With Baker Mayfield being traded to the Panthers, it’s looking like these two quarterbacks will be battling it out in Seattle.
Let’s start things off with Smith, who hasn’t been a regular starter since his initial two years in the league. In 2013, his best fantasy wideout with the Jets was Jeremy Kerley, who had 43 catches, 534 yards and averaged 9.5 points per game. In 2014, Eric Decker led the team with 74 catches, 962 yards and an average of 13.4 points per contest.
In Smith’s three starts in the absence of Wilson last season, however, Metcalf averaged a solid 17.2 points per game. He had a combined 14 catches and three touchdowns.
Now let’s move on to Lock. In 2020 as the No. 1 quarterback in Denver, his best fantasy wideout was Tim Patrick. He posted 51 catches for 742 yards and averaged 10.8 points a game. Jerry Jeudy was a close second with 52 catches, 856 yards and an average of 9.9 points per game. Lock's top wide receiver in three starts last season was Patrick, with an average of just 9.6 points. Jeudy averaged seven points in those three contests.
This data might be a bit unfair because Smith and Lock were in the very early stages of their respective careers, but it still doesn’t paint the most optimistic picture for Metcalf outside of a short, three-game sample from Smith’s limited starts from last season.
Coaching & Personnel Changes
Pete Carroll will enter his 13th NFL season as the Seahawks' head coach, while Shane Waldron is in his second season as the team's offensive coordinator. In his first year in that role, Seattle ranked dead last in offensive plays per game (56.1). The team threw the football 56.7% of the time (20th) and used the run at a 43.3% clip (13th).
In three games with Smith as the starter, the Seahawks ranked 29th in offensive plays, 27th in pass percentage and sixth in rush percentage. The most problematic numbers for Metcalf are that Seattle was also 31st in pass attempts and 29th in net passing yards in that time. Carroll and Waldron want to run the football, and these three games occurred before Rashaad Penny's mini, late-season breakout. The underwhelming Alex Collins was Seattle's best fantasy running back with Smith under center.
Verdict
I’m a big fan of Metcalf as a receiver, but I hate the situation he’s found himself in this season. While his numbers were good in a short, three-game stretch with Smith under center in 2021, it’s not enough for me to rank him among the top 15 wide receivers. That is where he’s coming off the board based on the average draft position data at Fantasy Football Calculator (WR13), and it’s simply too high based on the situation.
Remember the arguments for letting Russ cook in Seattle the past two seasons? That was all born from Carroll’s desire to run the football. As I mentioned earlier, Seattle was sixth in rush percentage in Smith's three starts last season, with Collins, not Penny or Chris Carson, as the lead runner. This be a run-based offense in 2022.
I can promise you that there will be no calls from Seahawks fans to let Geno or Drew cook this season. Based on what I’m hearing, they will barely be allowed in the kitchen.
Seattle’s backfield has a new weapon as the team selected Kenneth Walker III in the second round of the NFL draft. Even with questions about Carson's return from neck fusion surgery, the Seahawks will try and establish the run every week.
Metcalf has very little chance to be an elite fantasy receiver with a projected decline in pass attempts and a downgrade from Wilson to either Smith or Lock. Sure, he'll have some big games from time to time, but he'll also be more touchdown-dependent than in past seasons. No matter the eventual starter, Metcalf shouldn’t be drafted as more than a low No. 2 fantasy wideout or flex starter in most 10 or 12-team leagues.
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